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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still