A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
